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As countries come under growing pressure to tackle planet-heating methane emissions from the fossil fuel sector, oil and gas producers in COP host nations Brazil and Azerbaijan are struggling to prevent large leaks of methane, data shared with Climate Home News shows.
Satellite observations detected “super-emitting” methane plumes in the two countries this year that were visible from space and linked to state oil companies in both cases. Brazil presided over this year’s COP30 climate talks, while COP29 was in Azerbaijan.
Methane is a greenhouse gas that traps about 80 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide but has a shorter life span. If global warming is to stay below 1.5C, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that methane emissions from fossil fuels would need to fall by 75% by 2030.
At COP26 in 2021, a group of more than 100 countries announced their intention to cut methane emissions across all sectors by 30% from 2020 levels by the end of this decade. But a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment shows they are instead set to rise 5% by 2030.
At COP30 this November, Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva said that reducing methane emissions “gives us an opportunity to keep the planet’s average temperature [rise] within 1.5C, decreasing the frequency, intensity and impact of extreme weather events and protecting lives”.
And last year, Rovshan Najaf, president of Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, promised that the firm would achieve near-zero methane emissions in its oil and gas production by 2035.
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However, the latest data available from Azerbaijan’s SOCAR shows that the company’s methane emissions more than tripled from 2023 to 2024, when the country hosted COP29. SOCAR identified about 200,000 tonnes of methane emissions from its business activities in 2024.
Brazilian state-oil company Petrobras, meanwhile, did manage to reduce its methane emissions by more than half between 2015 and 2022, but they have since stayed stagnant, at about a million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emitted per year, the company’s annual sustainability data shows.
“Reducing methane has significant impacts on a country’s ability to meet its climate commitments,” said Tengi George-Ikoli, a methane expert with the National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).
“Countries like Brazil and Azerbaijan, who have hosted COPs, should be seen to commit to those efforts more so than others,” she emphasised.
In 2025, UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) alerted countries globally – including Brazil and Azerbaijan – to around 2,200 instances linking their oil and gas production to super-emitting events.
Both Brazil and Azerbaijan have focal points that receive these IMEO alerts. But a recent report shows that 90% of the notifications did not even receive a response, and neither Brazil nor Azerbaijan are listed in the 25 successful cases that managed to reduce emissions thanks to this system.
Big plumes in Azerbaijan’s southern oil & gas hub
In Azerbaijan, persistent large-scale methane emissions have been detected over its southern coast – a hub for its oil and gas industry – during the past two years, according to satellite data from online monitoring platform Carbon Mapper.
When satellites passed over the region in mid-2024, as Azerbaijan prepared to host the COP29 climate summit, they spotted a handful of massive methane plumes, each releasing between 2,000 and 4,000 kilogrammes of methane per hour, dozens of times above the threshold for a “super-emitting” event.
According to Carbon Mapper’s data, methane emissions from the same locations still persisted a year later at comparable or even higher levels.
Super-emitting events originating from the same source in Southern Azerbaijan detected in June 2024 (left) and July 2025 (right). Source: Carbon Mapper
Super-emitting events originating from the same source in Southern Azerbaijan detected in June 2024 (left) and July 2025 (right). Source: Carbon Mapper
It is impossible to pinpoint precisely the source of those emissions without ground-level monitoring. But satellite data suggests that methane was released both from pipelines – which may be leaking – and compressor stations, which are facilities that help keep fossil gas flowing by boosting its pressure.
In its 2025 sustainability report, SOCAR said it had expanded its methane emissions monitoring by using “leak detection AI tools”, drones and satellite technologies that “enabled more targeted, data-driven responses and supported the development of effective mitigation measures across operational sites”.
State oil firm in COP30 host nation linked to leaks
In Brazil, state-oil company Petrobras has been linked to three methane “super-emitting events” detected by satellites this year, which raises questions about emissions from its offshore oil and gas production facilities.
Three large methane plumes were detected in the Santos basin off the coast of Rio de Janeiro – which holds several of Brazil’s largest oil and gas fields – by Carbon Mapper on April 23.
Further analysis by environmental nonprofit SkyTruth, which specialises in satellite observations, revealed the plumes came from vessels in the Tupi field, which is majority-owned by Petrobras. Two of the vessels are operated by Dutch company SBM and the other by Petrobras.
The plumes in the Santos basin were large enough to be considered “super-emitting” methane events, on a scale similar to leaks in the same category detected in other parts of the world.
The US Environmental Protection Agency defines these as events with a rate of emissions of 100 kg of methane per hour. Two of the plumes detected in Brazil were above 300 and one was above 700 kg of methane per hour.
The events in Brazil are “particularly stunning” and could point to a more persistent issue, SkyTruth’s CEO John Amos told Climate Home, because the three plumes were detected during just one observation by a satellite orbiting the area.
“For one attempt to produce three positive plumes suggests that this could be a systematic problem offshore,” he said.
Petrobras says mitigation measures in place
Asked about these cases, Petrobras told Climate Home in a statement that the company is committed to reducing methane emissions as part of its decarbonisation strategy. It added that, because the plumes were detected by a single satellite observation, “the ability to draw broader conclusions about the consistency and magnitude of emissions over time is limited”.
The company also highlighted that its assets in the Santos basin perform “within the industry’s first quartile” for emissions per barrel of oil and noted that “initiatives such as recovering flare gas and performing leak detection and repair campaigns have helped to mitigate methane emissions”.
Petrobras also said that “during the period in question, operational conditions were under normal circumstances”.
Amos argued that if the sector considers such super-emitter plumes of methane – observable from space – “to be a consequence of ‘normal operating conditions’, then the offshore methane problem may be far worse than we anticipated”.
Just days before COP30, Petrobras executives co-chaired an offshore oil and gas conference in Rio de Janeiro.The discussions, the organisers wrote in a welcome letter, would focus on “traditional oil and gas technologies while highlighting the innovations essential for a more sustainable future” and would be “strategically positioned amid the ongoing energy transition”.
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As global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, with the United Nations admitting in November that an overshoot of the 1.5C warming limit is now inevitable, action on methane garnered growing attention at COP30.
New initiatives were launched at the climate summit in Belém to tackle methane emissions from the production of fossil fuels, which accounts for about a third of global emissions from this “super pollutant”, with other key sources being agriculture and waste management.
The UK launched a declaration to “drastically reduce” methane from the fossil fuel sector, which was endorsed by 11 countries including major oil and gas producers Canada, Norway and Kazakhstan. The actions it supports include more transparent monitoring, eliminating routine flaring and venting, and tracking progress towards near-zero methane emissions per unit of production.
The UK and Brazil also launched a three-year $25-million funding package to help developing countries tackle methane, among other “super pollutant” gases, which will benefit a first cohort of mostly fossil fuel-producing countries – among them Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Nigeria.
At last year’s COP29, the European Union championed an initiative that encouraged fossil fuel-producing countries to create roadmaps towards abating methane emissions from coal, oil and gas, including timelines, investment needs and the amount of emissions to be abated.
A boy follows a woman carrying a sack on her head as they walk towards a burning gas flaring furnace at a flow station in Ughelli, Delta State, Nigeria, on September 17, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde)
A boy follows a woman carrying a sack on her head as they walk towards a burning gas flaring furnace at a flow station in Ughelli, Delta State, Nigeria, on September 17, 2020. (Photo: REUTERS/Afolabi Sotunde)
But, as a growing clutch of voluntary initiatives has failed to produce results at the scale and speed needed to rein in global warming in the short term, pressure is rising for a more accountable and comprehensive approach to the problem.
At COP30, Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley renewed her call for a legally binding methane pact to “pull the methane emergency brake” and “buy us some time”, starting with actions in the oil and gas industry.
NRGI’s George-Ikoli said the oil and gas sector could lead on cutting methane emissions because measures like zero flaring and venting, and eliminating leaks could bring in revenues for companies by enabling them to use or sell currently wasted gas.
Mottley wrote in an op-ed for The Guardian this month that the next step would be to convene heads of state from willing nations to develop “a roadmap in 2026 for binding measures for the oil and gas industry”. Negotiations could start by 2027, with a deal adopted “as soon as possible thereafter”, she proposed.
A website selling different dates with Korean men in Brazil, including intimate encounters in motels, has sparked serious concern among authorities.
The man behind the website has been identified as Rikito Morikawa, a Japanese national who allegedly recruited young Korean men for the illegal business.
The site, Kdramadate, targets fans of South Korean television series popularly known as K-dramas, many of which focus on romantic relationships.
These shows have garnered a robust global fanbase over the past decades, with Netflix both streaming numerous Korean dramas and funding the production of new ones.
Brazilian authorities are investigating a website that sold paid dates with Korean men, including motel encounters
Kdramadate is now under investigation for s*xual exploitation. According to G1, the website invited potential clients to “live their K-drama fantasy” by paying them to spend time with a Korean man in São Paulo.
The website offered four packages: a coffee shop date in the city, dinner at a traditional Korean steakhouse, a stroll through the park, or an intimate experience in a motel or private residence.
It also promised clients that they would have lines from popular TV series whispered to them or that they would pose for a K-drama-style photoshoot with their “date.”
The commercialization of these encounters has reportedly drawn the attention of the Consulate General of the Republic of South Korea in São Paulo and the Brazilian Association of Koreans, who are investigating the matter.
A screenshot submitted as a complaint to the consulate showed Rikito explaining that the price for one hour of an intimate encounter was R$ 70 ($13), while three hours would cost R$ 170 ($30).
The website also featured “testimonials” from alleged clients who claimed to have purchased the packages and spent time with the “oppa.”
The platform, called Kdramadate, was allegedly operated by Rikito Morikawa, a 23-year-old Japanese national
“Relive the magic of K-dramas with your oppa. Tours of iconic scenes and unforgettable experiences in a romantic setting in São Paulo,” read the Kdramadate site.
The literal definition of “oppa” in Korean is “older brother.” However, beyond the literal meaning, the term is often used among romantic couples in Korea, and women use it to refer to men older than they are, Dr. Min Joo Lee, Professor of Asian Studies at Occidental College, told Bored Panda.
According to Dr. Lee, K-dramas construct a specific type of masculinity that influences how non-Koreans view Korean men.
“I don’t think K-dramas intentionally aim to construct such idealized images for foreign audiences. After all, romantic K-dramas have been, for the most part, entertainment primarily written by and for Korean women,” she explained.
“However, for some foreign viewers who do not have access to the different varieties of Korean masculinity, it may be easier to assume that the dramatized masculinity is the only type of Korean masculinity, and that it accurately reflects real-life masculinity.”
The site offered packages ranging from casual coffee dates to intimate encounters in motels or houses
Associating only that type of masculinity to all Korean men results in racial and s*xual fetishization, the professor explained.
“After all, the definition of fetishism is to boil the nuances and complexities of a culture or an ethnicity down to an easily consumable simplification.”
Grace Jung, the author of K-Drama School, explained that these series target a hetero cis-female audience, and that its male characters are projections of the female screenwriters’ “idealized fantasies.”
“Such men typically tend to be gentle, loving, attentive, and available to women’s needs and emotions. In general, they also tend to be financially wealthy, politically influential, handsome, and/or physically fit,” Jung added.
The Consulate General of the Republic of South Korea issued its first alert about Kdramdate on October 23, asking potential victims to get in touch.
Days later, the agency stated that, upon analyzing testimonies and further evidence, it had determined that the website involved the crime of s*xual exploitation.
Authorities discovered the company falsely listed a cultural center as its address
In Brazil, pr*stitution is defined as the act of offering s*xual services and it’s legal as long as it’s practiced by adults. It also allows for contributions to the INSS (Brazilian Social Security Institute).
In contrast, s*xual exploitation is illegal and involves the commercialization of s*xual services provided by someone else, whether that person is an adult or a minor.
Bruno Kim, the president of the Brazilian Association of Koreans, told G1 that he and Rafael Kang, a criminal lawyer from the consulate, went to the address published by Kdramadate and discovered it was not the company’s headquarters, but another building, the Hiroshima Cultural Center.
The cultural center then sent an extrajudicial notification to Rikito, who removed the address from the website and replaced it with another one.
According to the lawyer, at least ten young people of Korean descent were invited by Rikito to work with him via Instagram, WhatsApp, and phone calls.
Rikito, a 23-year-old from Hiroshima, described himself on the website as an “international model with roots that blend Korean and Japanese charm, fluent in 4 languages, and passionate about Brazilian culture,” as per G1. He also said he “brings the magic of K-dramas to real life.”
Clients were promised scripted romantic gestures, including their date whispering lines from famous series
Kim credited K-pop and K-dramas with significantly increasing the visibility of Korean culture in Brazil, but lamented that this interest was, in some cases, followed by initiatives that “exploit this fascination in a questionable way.”
“I have a deep concern for the reputation of the community in Brazil. It is essential to preserve the cultural integrity and trust built over decades since we arrived in Brazil in 1963, ensuring that situations like this do not happen again,” he stated.
Rikito reportedly left Brazil after his residency was revoked
Amid the investigation, Rikito has reportedly returned to Japan after the General Coordination of Labor Immigration canceled his residence permit. He also shut down the website earlier this month.
His lawyer stated the young man, just like the people he intended to recruit, worked as a “rental boyfriend,” taking people to parks and motels.
Kang, the criminal lawyer at the South Korean Consulate, celebrated that the case was made public in time to scare Rikito away and to ensure there were “no real victims.”
“I am still in contact with a police officer and we will continue to monitor the situation,” he stated.
People described the website as “bizarre” and “dangerous”
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has asked his government to draft by February guidelines for a national roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, an idea he championed during COP30.
In a directive issued on Monday, the Brazilian leader requested the ministries of finance, energy and environment, together with the chief of staff’s office, to come up with a proposal for a roadmap to a “just and planned energy transition” that would lead to the “gradual reduction of the country’s dependence on fossil fuels”.
The order also calls for the creation of financial mechanisms to support a roadmap, including an “Energy Transition Fund” that would be financed with government revenues from oil and gas exploration.
The guidelines, due in 60 days, will be delivered “as a priority” to Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council, which will use them to craft an official fossil fuel transition roadmap.
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At the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, President Lula and Environment Minister Marina Silva called on countries to agree a process leading to an international roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels, after Silva argued earlier in June that “the worst possible thing would be for us to not plan for this transition”.
Yet, to the disappointment of more than 80 countries, the proposal for a global roadmap did not make it into the final Belém agreement as other nations that are heavily reliant on fossil fuel production resisted the idea. Draft compromise language that would have offered countries support to produce national roadmaps was axed.
Brazil seeks to set an example
Instead, Brazil’s COP30 president said he would work with governments and industry on a voluntary initiative to produce such a roadmap by next year’s UN climate summit, while a group of some 25 countries backed a conference to discuss a just transition away from coal, oil and gas that will be hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands in April 2026.
Former German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said in a statement that Brazil moving forward with a national roadmap just after COP30 shows growing momentum, and that the roadmap discussions in Belém were not abstract.
“President Lula’s leadership helps keep this agenda high on the political calendar and creates space for others to follow. Other countries should move quickly to do the same and reinforce the economic transition away from fossil fuels happening around the world,” she said.
Experts at Observatório do Clima, a network of 130 Brazilian climate NGOs, welcomed Lula’s subsequent order for a national roadmap and said in a statement it sends signals abroad that Brazil is “doing its homework”.
“President Lula seems to be taking the roadmap proposal seriously,” said Cláudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at Observatório do Clima. “If Brazil – a developing country and the world’s eighth-largest oil producer – demonstrates that it is willing to practice what it preaches, it becomes harder for other countries to allege difficulties.”
Brazil is one of a number of countries planning a major expansion of oil and gas extraction in the coming decade, according to the Production Gap report put together by think-tanks and NGOs. Much of the exploration is set to take place offshore near the Amazon basin, which is poised to become a new frontier for fossil fuel development.
Significant funding needed
Natalie Unterstell, president of the Brazilian climate nonprofit Talanoa Institute and a member of Lula’s Council for Sustainable Social Economic Development, welcomed the national roadmap proposal in a post on LinkedIn, but emphasised it must tackle Brazil’s goal of becoming the world’s fourth largest oil producer by 2030.
Another key question is whether the Energy Transition Fund it envisages will be large enough to catalyse a real shift over to clean energy, she added. “Small and fragmented tools won’t move the dial,” she wrote.
Some Brazilian states have tested a model similar to the proposal for a national Energy Transition Fund. In the oil-producing state of Espirito Santo, for example, a percentage of the state government’s oil revenues go to a sovereign fund that invests in renewable energy, energy efficiency projects and substitution of fossil fuels with less polluting alternatives.
Andreas Sieber, associate director for policy at campaign group 350.org, said a meaningful roadmap for Brazil would need to secure “adequate, fair and transparent financing to make the transition real on the ground”.
He also called for “a truly participatory process – involving scientists, civil society, workers whose livelihoods are at stake, and frontline and traditional communities whose rights must be upheld – while ensuring that those with vested fossil fuel interests do not shape the outcome”.
This story was edited to add comments by Jennifer Morgan
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Beneath the thick and unbroken rainforest canopy, there is a growing sense of desperation among the guardians of French Guiana’s slice of the Amazon.
Illegal miners, lured by the prospect of untapped gold, are crossing into the French-ruled territory from the nearby border with Brazil, pushing local authorities to the limit.
France spends more than 100 million euros ($115 million) a year to fight illegal gold mining in Guiana Amazonian Park, which extends over some 34,000 square km (13,000 square miles) – an area larger than Belgium.
But stopping the miners sneaking in from Brazil sometimes feels like a losing battle.
“More than money, we need a joint, permanent policing strategy, with officers from both countries on the same boat, to create a barrier and stop the mining along the border,” said Thierry Girardot, a former senior official with the French park’s delegation in Camopi, a handful of wooden buildings separated from Brazil by the meandering Oiapoque River.
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There are an estimated 7,000 miners digging for gold inside the national park at present and about 95% of them are Brazilian, said Major Christophe Laratte, who oversees French operations to combat illegal gold mining in French Guiana alongside the national police force.
The wildcat miners cut down trees and use mercury to separate fragments of gold, polluting rivers and leaving desolation behind them. About 90% of the territory’s coastline shows signs of mercury contamination, Laratte told Climate Home News.
Felipe Finger, head of the Special Inspection Group at the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), displays confiscated gold during an operation against illegal mining in Yanomami Indigenous land, at a farm in rural Roraima state, Brazil, December 7, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino)
Felipe Finger, head of the Special Inspection Group at the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), displays confiscated gold during an operation against illegal mining in Yanomami Indigenous land, at a farm in rural Roraima state, Brazil, December 7, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino)
What is the TFFF and will it help?
But despite the damage caused by miners, the vast expanse of forest around the Oiapoque is still relatively pristine, making the Brazilian side of the border a potential candidate for funding from the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), the new multilateral fund launched by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of COP30 in the Amazon city of Belém.
Under the current plan, Brazil would be eligible for an estimated $1.3 billion a year in forest payments, according to online platform TFFF Watch. However, this amount would need to be split between the country’s conservation areas and Indigenous territories, numbering more than 3,700 in total.
Part of France, French Guiana is not listed among the forested developing nations that could be eligible to benefit from the fund, in contrast with Brazil.
But while authorities on both sides of the border hope the TFFF could boost efforts to fight illegal mining by channelling cash to local communities, Indigenous leaders and economists told Climate Home News they feared the planned fund would be no match for the profits from illegality – even once the fund is able to start disbursing aid.
Thierry Girardot, former deputy head of France’s vast Guiana Amazonian Park, says money alone will not stop the illegal mining around the border area. (Photo: Pedro Ladeira)
Thierry Girardot, former deputy head of France’s vast Guiana Amazonian Park, says money alone will not stop the illegal mining around the border area. (Photo: Pedro Ladeira)
The TFFF aims to raise $25 billion in public capital and an additional $100 billion from private investors, operating as a fixed-income investment fund. Its returns will be used to reward developing countries and local communities that conserve tropical forests and act as a disincentive to activities that damage them.
So far, Brazil and Indonesia have contributed $1 billion each and Norway has promised to provide $3 billion once the fund secures its first $12 billion. Germany, France and Colombia have also offered support under varying conditions.
Brazil’s Ministry of Finance told Climate Home News that the next step after COP30 is to set up governing boards for the TFFF and the Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF), its investment arm.
The TFIF will only be launched when it reaches an initial goal of $10 billion in startup capital, the ministry said, adding that more fundraising activities are planned for the short term. So far, the TFFF has raised about $6.7 billion in total, around half on conditional terms.
The new rainforest fund plans to pay countries about $4 per hectare of conserved forest per year, obliging them to demonstrate the results of their forest protection efforts before receiving the money. According to the concept note, at least 20% of the resources should be allocated to Indigenous peoples and local communities.
Largely pristine rainforest surrounds the Oiapoque River, which marks the border between Brazil and French Guiana (Photo: Pedro Ladeira)
Largely pristine rainforest surrounds the Oiapoque River, which marks the border between Brazil and French Guiana (Photo: Pedro Ladeira)
Miners use profits to make inroads
But officials and Indigenous leaders battling illegal miners along the border between French Guiana and the far northern Brazilian state of Amapá said their experience suggests the fund’s promise of more financial aid may not be enough to deter the destructive activity.
Siméon Monnerville, chief of the Teko people, said basic social assistance paid by the French government to every resident of about 600 euros (around $700) a month had not stopped miners from recruiting Indigenous locals.
He said the miners look for people who know the rivers and streams, initially offering them excessive sums of more than 1,000 euros per day.
With few other ways to earn money to buy goods such as smartphones, many are tempted, said a leader of the Waiãpi people, another Indigenous community living on both sides of the border.
“There is almost always an Indigenous person in the boat, because they know how to pass the rocks in the river,” the leader said, asking to speak on condition of anonymity.
Across the Oiapoque, Brazil’s Montanhas do Tumucumaque national park spans nearly 39,000 square km (15,000 square miles).
Here, too, the miners have made deep economic inroads.
A boat passes along the Camopi River in French Guiana, where illegal gold miners are sneaking in from across the Brazilian border. (Photo: Pedro Ladeira)
A boat passes along the Camopi River in French Guiana, where illegal gold miners are sneaking in from across the Brazilian border. (Photo: Pedro Ladeira)
Inside the borders of the national park, many of the 800 residents of the village of Vila Brasil make a living by catering to the needs of the miners, operating restaurants and guesthouses and selling equipment.
The community also has secured political backing – highlighting another potential hurdle for the TFFF in Brazil and elsewhere. A bill in the Brazilian Congress introduced by Senator Lucas Barreto, who represents Amapá, seeks to remove the village from the national park’s boundaries and shrink the protected area by 8,000 hectares (19,800 acres).
Shopkeepers in Vila Brasil, who spoke to Climate Home News on condition of anonymity, said they supported the bill and wanted the village removed from the park, which would drastically reduce the risk, intensity and frequency of government enforcement.
Fund’s financial promises “too small”
The issue highlights a crucial flaw in the TFFF’s design, said Tasso Azevedo, one of Brazil’s leading experts in climate and forest policy, founder of MapBiomas and former director of the Brazilian Forest Service.
Azevedo, who two years ago presented the original conservation finance proposal to Lula’s team that eventually became the TFFF, said the amount the TFFF has fixed for reward payments is no match for the illegal profits that drive deforestation.
“The payment per hectare was set very low, because it was calculated based on what they thought could be raised from the fund,” he said.
A wildcat gold miner stands at an illegal gold mining camp during an operation against illegal gold mining at the Urupadi National Forest Park in Amazonas state, Brazil, May 23, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Adriano Machado)
A wildcat gold miner stands at an illegal gold mining camp during an operation against illegal gold mining at the Urupadi National Forest Park in Amazonas state, Brazil, May 23, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Adriano Machado)
The original idea, developed by Azevedo and economist Pedro Moura, was for the global oil industry to commit $1 per barrel of oil produced. With current demand of roughly 30 billion barrels per year, this could have supported payments of about $30 per hectare per year of conserved tropical forest – while the final TFFF proposal offers just $4.
“Certainly, the current value is not enough to stop economies that destroy forests. It’s a very small amount,” Azevedo said.
In the meantime, the biggest question mark hanging over the plan is whether it can raise its initial target of $125 billion, said Moura, a specialist in market-based conservation mechanisms who heads BVRio, an environmental commodities and traceability company.
“That’s the big ‘if’ right now,” he said.
“It’s not all about money”
The Brazilian government says the TFFF’s distinguishing feature lies in its promise of a steady, long-term flow of payments guaranteed by investment returns, and that the proposed $125 billion target is only a starting point rather than a minimum requirement.
For João Resende, secretary for economic affairs at Brazil’s Finance Ministry, the key lies in changing how governments see climate spending.
“The big shift is getting countries to stop seeing it as an expense and start treating it as an investment. Brazil was able to put in $1 billion because we see it as investment,” he said.
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In Montanhas do Tumucumaque, park director Fernanda Brandão said budget constraints limit the Brazilian authorities’ ability to crack down on illegal mining. That means proposals such as the TFFF could help bring consistency to enforcement actions as long as the payments ensure a steady stream of funding.
On the other side of the border, Laratte said reining in the miners is challenging and requires a multi-pronged approach.
Miners quickly adapt to law enforcement strategies by funding networks of lookouts and preparing back-up kits to replace equipment seized during operations, which cost the French government about 110 million euros per year, he added.
“It’s a complex issue, involving social, strategic and diplomatic aspects,” Laratte said. “It’s not all about money.”
Reporting for this story was supported by the Pulitzer Center.
Main image: Siméon Monnerville, chief of the Teko people, says illegal miners recruit Indigenous locals with the promise of high wages, in Camopi, French Guiana. (Photo: Pedro Ladeira)
It has been dubbed the “Amazon COP”, the “COP of Implementation” and “the COP of Truth” – but the UN climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém may end up being remembered as the biofuels COP.
COP30 president Brazil – a leading producer of sugar-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel – won backing from 23 governments for a pledge to quadruple production of so-called sustainable fuels by 2030, and has set out to promote biofuels at the talks.
The production of biofuels is likely to ramp up in the coming years, with the air travel and shipping industries – as well as road transport – seeing it as a cheaper way to decarbonise than technologies based on green hydrogen.
But critics say the need for more land to grow the feedstocks used to make biofuels can increase deforestation pressure, and that land suitable for growing crops should be used for food, not fuel.
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Cian Delaney, a campaigner on energy issues at the Brussels-based Transport & Environment group, said it is “difficult to imagine a scenario where this [pledge] doesn’t require more land clearance”.
“Without any commitment from countries to meet the target without clearing more land, this will be devastating for the climate, ecosystems and food security,” he said.
Brazil has tried to allay these concerns, saying that for fuels to be considered sustainable they must have a low greenhouse gas intensity and comply with a set of criteria such as nature conservation, sustainable water management and compliance with social safeguards.
Biofuels take centre-stage at COP30
Biofuels have been prominent at the COP30 venue itself. Electricity generators at the venue and buses shuttling delegates around are running on diesel mixed with 10% biofuels, and corporate advocates of plant-based fuels such as Toyota are promoting their product.
The Japanese carmaker was present on at least 10 panels and provided a fleet of 70 hybrid vehicles powered by ethanol. Information tablets in each of the cars made the case for biofuels.
Toyota’s communications director, Roberto Braun, told one panel that electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuels are both part of the solution to tackling transport’s fossil fuel emissions, especially in developing countries without adequate charging infrastructure or widespread power access.
They also create jobs, Braun told the panel run by Brazil’s main business association (CNI).
An advert for Toyota at Belém airport (Photo: Megan Rowling)
But Greenpeace, which has previously challenged Toyota over its support for biofuels, accused the company of undermining global efforts to fight climate change by ignoring “mounting scientific consensus that biofuels are a false climate solution”.
Food vs fuel vs forests
Those opposed to biofuels say using renewable electricity and batteries – or greenhydrogen made from renewable power –is the right way to cut emissions from transport.
But those options appear a remote possibility in parts of the Global South where charging points are rare and power infrastructure limited, as is the case in Brazil’s vast interior. Other developing countries like COP32 host Ethiopia have faced similar challenges to EV roll-out in rural areas.
In contrast, across Brazil, biofuels are already well-established.
According to a report prepared for the COP30 presidency by the International Energy Agency (IEA), no major country gets more of its fuel from biofuels – particularly ethanol – than Brazil.
Drivers across the country can choose between refuelling with pure ethanol or with a – usually slightly more expensive – mix of 30% ethanol and 70% gasoline. In rural areas, where pick-up trucks like Toyota’s are a ubiquitous sight, billboards advertise ethanol’s environmental benefits.
“Rich country-centric” EV focus
In the run-up to COP30, Greenpeace exchanged a series of open letters with Toyota President Koji Sato, who said the company’s strategy reflected the “differing needs and energy circumstances of customers across nations and regions”.
Taking different realities into account makes sense, said Francis X. Johnson, a scientist who was lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s special report on climate change and land.
The prototype of the Toyota Innova Hycross, which Toyota said is the world’s first flex-fuel ethanol-powered car, launched in India on 29 August 2023. (Photo by Pradeep Gaur / SOPA Images/Sipa USA)
He told Climate Home News the focus on EVs has created a “rich country-centric” perspective.
“In the Global South, where significant populations still live in rural areas and where infrastructure and electricity are often unreliable or absent,” Johnson said, more diversified strategies involving biofuels are “highly valuable”.
Their merits vary wildly depending on the biofuel though, he warned. While sugarcane-based ethanol in Brazil has been “providing emissions and development benefits for years”, soy or corn-based biofuels in Europe or North America are generally quite polluting.
As Climate Home News revealed in June, virgin palm oil from Malaysia has been passed off as used cooking oil and sold to aviation fuel suppliers in Europe, hiking deforestation and food prices in the rainforest nation.
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Felipe Barcellos from the Energy and Environment Institute (IEMA), a Brazilian think-tank, said there were “a lot of bad examples, like Indonesia and Malaysia”, adding that “this oil is very problematic”.
But, he said that while EVs are the best choice, biofuels have a place as long as proper safeguards are in place to prevent deforestation to make way for feedstock crops.
Brazil has 100 million hectares of degraded pasture, an area the size of Egypt, some of which could be brought back into productivity for crops, Barcellos said. Some could also be reforested, though reforesting all of it is not feasible, due to the high cost and need for financing.
EVs must be the priority, campaigners say
But for Greenpeace, biofuels can only be a limited, stop-gap measure on the road to an EV-only future.
Greenpeace campaigner Mariko Shiohata, who has led the campaign group’s criticism of Toyota’s progress to electrify its range, acknowledged that biofuels “will be needed on a marginal scale”. Brazil-based Greenpeace campaigner Camila Jardim said biofuels “may play a limited and temporary role in Brazil”.
But “large-scale bioenergy crops still drive land pressure, monocultures, pesticide use and social conflict, even when labelled as ‘using degraded land’,” Jardim said. In practice, expansion often displaces cattle and can indirectly fuel deforestation, she added.
In the meantime, switching to electric and reducing the number of cars on the road worldwide should be the priority, Shiohata said, suggesting Toyota could do more – for example, by making small, cheap EVs with renewable-energy charging stations. Governments should also encourage electricity access with off-grid solar panels.
“There’s no time for detours on electrification,” she said.
